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| Book/Dissertation / PhD Thesis | FZJ-2020-04852 |
2020
Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH Zentralbibliothek, Verlag
Jülich
ISBN: 978-3-95806-513-0
Please use a persistent id in citations: http://hdl.handle.net/2128/26343 urn:nbn:de:0001-2020120322
Abstract: A future European energy system that primarily relies on variable renewable energy sources (VRES) such as wind turbines and photo-voltaic (PV) modules is becoming increasingly conceivable. Nevertheless, the role that VRES could play in future energy systems is still uncertain. Besides the well-known uncertainties resulting from the intermittency of these technologies, other questions remain in relation to their future design, spatial distribution, and expected operation. Additionally, there is a possibility that generation lulls could occasionally align across a broad regionand, as a result, cast the energy system into an energy deficit. Little is known of these VRES lulls, primarily in regards to where and how often they might occur, how long they will last, and how deep their deficits will be. Before the optimal future energy system can be designed, both VRES potential and the lulls that can occurneed to be understood at deeper level. Therefore, the aim of the current work is to evaluate the potential of future wind and PV generation in Europe by considering in detail their spatial, temporal, and future design characteristics, and furthermore touse the developed methods to investigate the occurrence of VRES lulls within the context of an exemplary future European energy system. To perform this work, projections are made of the spatially-sensitive future design of onshore wind turbines, open-field PV parks, and rooftop PV systems by observing past trends and evaluating optimal system configurations. Geospatial land eligibility constraints are uniquely incorporated for these technologies over the entire European context, after which individual turbines, PV parks, and rooftop areas in residential zones are identified. Computationally efficient simulations tools are also developed to perform hourly-resolved simulations of all potential turbines, parks, and rooftop areas for the weather years 1980 until 2016. With these tools, the total capacity and generation potential of onshore wind, open-field PV and rooftop PV across Europe are found. VRES lulls are at last investigated by reconstructing aliterature-sourced scenario of a future European energy system designed for 100% reliance on renewable energy sources. Lull investigations are performed for three contexts considering: only the VRES generation, electricity demand without grid limitations, and finally the full operation of the energy system complete with grid limitations and backup orchestration via power flow optimization. As a result of this work, total annual generation potential from onshore wind, openfield PV, and rooftop PV generation in Europe amounts to 58PWh, of which slightly over 20PWh will be available at a cost below 4 ct$_\epsilon$ kWh$^{-1}$. In terms of VRES lulls, it is seen that wind and PV offer complementary generation leading to lull lengths around 80% shorter than when any technology is evaluated independently. When aggregated at the European level without grid congestion, uninterrupted generation from VRES sources is found equal to 11% of the hourly average over all years; indicating that a base generation from VRES sources in Europe is conceivable. Nevertheless when considering electricity demand then, without grid limitation, lulls are always observed at the European level until a back-up capacity of 102% of the average hourly demand is available. With full energy system operation, lullsoccurring in 1% of years were consistently seen around 20 days at the national level, and total energy deficits across Europe were found up to 8.56 TWh. Similarly, in these rare years, total VRES backup capacity across Europe of 501 GW, with fullregional cooperation, up to 738 GW, with regional self-reliance, is needed.
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